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LU9DCE > ALERT    06.02.25 12:06l 140 Lines 5639 Bytes #107 (0) @ WW
BID : 5450_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 06-FEB25
Path: IZ3LSV<DB0ERF<DK0WUE<DK0WUE<K7EK<W0ARP<LU9DCE
Sent: 250206/1000Z 5450@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.24

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                       PHP SCHEDULED NEWSLETTERS (PSN)
                     COPYRIGHT 2025 - EDUARDO A. CASTILLO
 SESSION - 05E9490351ED5441879F64AAD986F3A16DDA2EDD4C40392E1484F4428A72D9DA6D
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SPC - NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF THU FEB  6 05:45:02 UTC 2025

NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF THU FEB  6 05:45:02 UTC 2025.

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SPC MD 64

MD 0064 CONCERNING FREEZING RAIN FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN INDIANA AND MUCH OF
NORTH-CENTRAL OHIO
        

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0064
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0843 PM CST WED FEB 05 2025

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF EASTERN INDIANA AND MUCH OF
NORTH-CENTRAL OHIO

CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN 

VALID 060243Z - 060845Z

SUMMARY...FREEZING DRIZZLE AND LIGHT FREEZING RAIN SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY THROUGH TONIGHT. PERIODS
OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY FREEZING RAIN ARE POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...EVENING UPPER AIR/SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A BROAD WARM
AIR ADVECTION REGIME WAS STRENGTHENING AHEAD OF A LOW AMPLITUDE
UPPER TROUGH AND WARM FRONT OVER PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE OH VALLEY.
NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT, TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR OR JUST BELOW
FREEZING WITH SEVERAL AREAS OF LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE
PRECIPITATION. OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS, AREA SURFACE STATIONS
HAVE OBSERVED A MOSAIC OF FREEZING DRIZZLE, SNOW/ICE PELLETS AND
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN SHOWERS AS THE INITIAL ONSET OF STRONGER WARM
AIR ADVECTION.

THUS FAR, INTERMITTENT FREEZING RAIN RATES HAVE BEEN LIGHT,
GENERALLY BELOW 0.02 IN/HR. HOWEVER, RECENT RADAR TRENDS SHOW AN
INCREASE IN DEEPER CONVECTIVE CORES (SOME WITH LIGHTNING) AND
MODERATE STRATIFORM DEVELOPING OVER EAST-CENTRAL IN AND FAR WESTERN
OH. THIS INTENSIFICATION TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT FROM AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD
BOLSTER LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION (850-700 MB TEMPS OF 4-6 C) THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CONTINUED LARGE-SCALE ASCENT, IN COMBINATION
WITH WEAK ELEVATED BUOYANCY (~500 J/KG OF MUCAPE) WILL SUPPORT MORE
WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN IN
AND NORTH-CENTRAL OH. MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY FREEZING RAIN, WITH
RATES OF 0.05-0.1 IN/HR ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY WITH THE HEAVIER
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS. FREEZING RAIN CONCERNS ARE HIGHEST PRIMARILY
ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL OH WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW 30 F
AND ACCRETION WILL BE MOST EFFICIENT. HOWEVER, SOME ICING IS
POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN OH WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ARE MORE MARGINAL. GIVEN THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN ICING, TRAVEL
DISRUPTIONS ARE POSSIBLE.

..LYONS.. 02/06/2025

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND...

LAT...LON   40278575 41468584 41658482 41498255 41498129 41048073
            40068133 39558253 39648353 39758425 39878508 40278575 

READ MORE

        

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SPC FEB 6, 2025 0600 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

SPC 1200Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
      
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1141 PM CST WED FEB 05 2025

VALID 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS AND TN VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR ACROSS
PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND TENNESSEE VALLEY, MAINLY THIS
MORNING AND LATER IN THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING.

...SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND TN VALLEY...
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SEVERE POTENTIAL ARE APPARENT, YIELDING EXPANSION
IN ALL DIRECTIONS OF THE LEVEL 1-MRGL RISK AND THE INCLUSION OF
TORNADO/HAIL HIGHLIGHTS. INITIAL ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ONGOING AT 12Z,
CENTERED ON THE SOUTHEAST KY, SOUTHERN WV, AND FAR SOUTHWEST VA
VICINITY. AN EARLY MORNING SUPERCELL OR TWO MAY LINGER INTO
MID-MORNING, BUT THE BULK OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
IN A WEAKENING PHASE. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL
DIMINISH AS THE LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE IMPULSE QUICKLY SHIFTS AWAY
OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/NORTHERN APPALACHIANS. THIS TIMING WILL
BE COINCIDENT WITH THE NADIR OF WARM-MOIST SECTOR INSTABILITY.

A SEPARATE ROUND OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED BY
AFTERNOON ACROSS A PORTION OF THE MID-SOUTH, MAINLY TO THE COOL SIDE
OF A SLOWING WEST/EAST-ORIENTED SURFACE FRONT. WHILE INITIAL
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ELEVATED WITHIN THE PRONOUNCED BAROCLINIC ZONE,
CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
WARM-MOIST SECTOR IN PARTS OF TN TO SOUTHEAST KY. DESPITE THE LACK
OF MORE PROMINENT LARGE-SCALE ASCENT, A FAST, NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL
ZONAL FLOW REGIME WILL YIELD MID/UPPER-LEVEL HODOGRAPH ELONGATION.
THIS SHOULD FOSTER POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED CLUSTER TO DEVELOP,
CENTERED ON THE SOUTHERN KY/NORTHERN TN VICINITY BY LATE AFTERNOON.
WEAK LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MORE MUTED HODOGRAPH CURVATURE
RELATIVE TO THIS MORNING MAY PRECLUDE A GREATER SEVERE THREAT. BUT
LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY
THIS CONVECTION AS FAR EAST AS WESTERN NC BY EARLY EVENING.

..GRAMS/LYONS.. 02/06/2025

READ MORE

      

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