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W7EES > SWPC 10.11.12 02:54l 55 Lines 2113 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 21F5W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IZ3LSV<IK8VKW<IR2UBX<IW0QNL<JH4XSY<JE7YGF<N9PMO<N9PMO<W6IDS<W7EES
Sent: 121110/0025 8693@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
::::: CORRECTED COPY :::::
SDF Number 314 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Nov 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to
09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
09/0151Z which was associated with a non-earth directed CME that
originated from a region behind the east limb. There was a second CME
observed begining at 09/1524Z which was associated with a filament
eruption in the southeast quadrant of the disk. Analysis of the second
CME is still ongoing. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on
the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at low
levels with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and
three (10 Nov, 11 Nov, 12 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 407 km/s at
08/2216Z. There was a weak enhancement of greater than 10 MeV protons at
geosynchronous orbit in response to the full halo, backsided CME that
occurred yesterday. The peak flux level was 2 pfu at 09/0420Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels for the next three days (10 Nov, 11 Nov, 12 Nov).
III. Event probabilities 10 Nov-12 Nov
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Nov 115
Predicted 10 Nov-12 Nov 120/125/130
90 Day Mean 09 Nov 117
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Nov 002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Nov 002/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Nov-12 Nov 007/007-007/007-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Nov-12 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/05
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 10/10/05
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