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CX2SA > SWPC 06.01.13 00:22l 62 Lines 2240 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 1971-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IZ3LSV<IK2XDE<ON4HU<CX2ACB<CX2SA
Sent: 130105/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SA #:1971 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:1971-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SA
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2013 Jan 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 5 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Jan 2013
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to
05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
05/0931Z from Region 1652 (N20E74). There are currently 14 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at low
levels with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (06
Jan, 07 Jan, 08 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 361 km/s at
04/2209Z. Total IMF reached 5.2 nT at 05/1138Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -3.5 nT at 04/2306Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet on day 1 (06 Jan). Quiet to unsettled levels are
expected on days 2-3 (07 Jan, 08 Jan).
III. Event probabilities 06 Jan-08 Jan
Class M 35/35/25
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Jan 145
Predicted 06 Jan-08 Jan 145/140/135
90 Day Mean 05 Jan 119
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Jan 002/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Jan 002/002
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Jan-08 Jan 005/005-006/008-006/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Jan-08 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/10/10
Minor Storm 01/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 10/20/20
Major-severe storm 05/15/15
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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