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CX2SA > SWPC 07.01.13 00:21l 62 Lines 2242 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 2011-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IZ3LSV<IW0QNL<JH4XSY<F1OYP<LZ3NP<CX2SA
Sent: 130106/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SA #:2011 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:2011-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SA
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2013 Jan 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 6 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Jan 2013
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to
06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
06/0303Z from Region 1653 (N09E63). There are currently 14 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at low
levels with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (07
Jan, 08 Jan, 09 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 370 km/s at
06/2036Z. Total IMF reached 9.4 nT at 06/1629Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -6.2 nT at 06/0803Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days 1-2 (07 Jan, 08 Jan). Quiet
levels are expected on day 3 (09 Jan).
III. Event probabilities 07 Jan-09 Jan
Class M 35/25/25
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Jan 142
Predicted 07 Jan-09 Jan 140/135/130
90 Day Mean 06 Jan 119
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Jan 001/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Jan 003/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Jan-09 Jan 006/008-006/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Jan-09 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/05
Minor Storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/10
Major-severe storm 15/15/05
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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