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W7EES > SWPC 08.01.13 02:24l 51 Lines 1745 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 29C7W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IZ3LSV<IW0QNL<OK0PTU<OK0NAG<DB0ERF<DB0EAM<DB0RES<WA7V<F1OYP<VE2PKT<
KA0MOS<GB7YEW<N9LYA<W7EES
Sent: 130107/2336 10695@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 7 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Jan 2013
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to
07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
07/0852Z from Region 1640 (N28W87). There are currently 12 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at low
with a chance for moderate levels on days one, two, and three (08 Jan,
09 Jan, 10 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 385 km/s at
07/1934Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 07/0126Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -5.8 nT at 07/0327Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet with a chance of unsettled levels for the next three days
(08 Jan, 09
Jan, 10 Jan).
III. Event probabilities 08 Jan-10 Jan
Class M 35/25/25
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Jan 150
Predicted 08 Jan-10 Jan 150/145/140
90 Day Mean 07 Jan 120
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Jan 006/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Jan 002/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Jan-10 Jan 006/008-007/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Jan-10 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/05/10
Minor Storm 05/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/15/20
Major-severe storm 15/05/15
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