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CX2SA > SWPC 12.01.13 00:58l 61 Lines 2188 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 2166-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IZ3LSV<IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 130111/2249Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SA #:2166 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:2166-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SA
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2013 Jan 11 2235 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 11 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jan 2013
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to
11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
11/0911Z from Region 1654 (N08E31). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be at moderate
levels for the next three days (12 Jan, 13 Jan, 14 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 350 km/s at
11/1941Z. Total IMF reached 8.7 nT at 11/2036Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -7.3 nT at 11/2029Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels for the next three days (12 Jan, 13
Jan, 14 Jan).
III. Event probabilities 12 Jan-14 Jan
Class M 60/60/60
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/05
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Jan 172
Predicted 12 Jan-14 Jan 175/170/170
90 Day Mean 11 Jan 122
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Jan 002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Jan 002/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Jan-14 Jan 008/008-008/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Jan-14 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/05
Minor Storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/10
Major-severe storm 15/15/05
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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