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W7EES > SWPC 14.01.13 20:53l 49 Lines 1746 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 2A2FW7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IZ3LSV<IW0QNL<JH4XSY<JE7YGF<N9PMO<GB7YEW<N9LYA<W7EES
Sent: 130113/2221 10799@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 13 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jan 2013
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to
13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was an M1 event observed at
13/0838Z from Region 1652 (N19W28). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (14
Jan, 15 Jan, 16 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
511 km/s at 13/2043Z. Total IMF reached 11.1 nT at 13/1944Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -8.3 nT at 13/1858Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels for the next three days (14 Jan, 15 Jan, 16 Jan).
III. Event probabilities 14 Jan-16 Jan
Class M 65/65/65
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Jan 156
Predicted 14 Jan-16 Jan 155/150/145
90 Day Mean 13 Jan 123
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jan 002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Jan 006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Jan-16 Jan 006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jan-16 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 10/10/10
Major-severe storm 05/05/05
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