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CX2SA > SWPC 04.02.13 00:19l 63 Lines 2300 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 3059-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IZ3LSV<IW0QNL<JH4XSY<F1OYP<VK4TUB<VK7AX<XE1FH<CX2SA
Sent: 130203/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SA #:3059 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:3059-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SA
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2013 Feb 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 34 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Feb 2013
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to
03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at
03/0610Z from Region 1667 (N22E42). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be at low
levels with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (04
Feb, 05 Feb, 06 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 491 km/s at
02/2104Z. Total IMF reached 7.5 nT at 03/1445Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -2.6 nT at 03/1303Z. Electrons greater than 2
MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 388 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels for the next three days (04 Feb, 05
Feb, 06 Feb).
III. Event probabilities 04 Feb-06 Feb
Class M 25/25/25
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Feb 111
Predicted 04 Feb-06 Feb 115/115/120
90 Day Mean 03 Feb 120
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Feb 009/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Feb 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Feb-06 Feb 009/012-007/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Feb-06 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/10/10
Minor Storm 10/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/20/15
Major-severe storm 35/15/10
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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