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W7EES > SWPC 09.02.13 08:06l 47 Lines 1621 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 2BFAW7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IZ3LSV<I0OJJ<VE3UIL<GB7MAX<GB7YEW<N9LYA<W7EES
Sent: 130209/0022 11258@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 39 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Feb 2013
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to
08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at low
levels on days one, two, and three (09 Feb, 10 Feb, 11 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
481 km/s at 08/1445Z. Total IMF reached 10.9 nT at 08/0159Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -9.6 nT at 08/0203Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels for the next three days (09 Feb, 10 Feb,
11 Feb).
III. Event probabilities 09 Feb-11 Feb
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Feb 104
Predicted 09 Feb-11 Feb 105/110/105
90 Day Mean 08 Feb 120
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Feb 007/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Feb 008/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Feb-11 Feb 011/012-008/009-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Feb-11 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/10/10
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/20/15
Major-severe storm 25/20/10
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