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CX2SA > SWPC 19.02.13 00:20l 63 Lines 2321 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 3558-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IZ3LSV<F1OYP<F1OYP<ZL2BAU<XE1FH<CX2SA
Sent: 130218/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SA #:3558 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:3558-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SA
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2013 Feb 18 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 49 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Feb 2013
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to
18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
18/0241Z from Region 1675 (N13E04). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at low
levels on days one, two, and three (19 Feb, 20 Feb, 21 Feb) with a
chance for an M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 373 km/s at
17/2215Z. Total IMF reached 7.7 nT at 18/1639Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -6.8 nT at 18/2014Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels for the next three days (19 Feb, 20
Feb, 21 Feb) with a chance for active levels and a slight chance for
minor storm levels on days 2 - 3 (20 - 21 Feb).
III. Event probabilities 19 Feb-21 Feb
Class M 25/25/25
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Feb 105
Predicted 19 Feb-21 Feb 105/100/100
90 Day Mean 18 Feb 116
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Feb 007/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Feb 002/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Feb-21 Feb 007/008-011/012-012/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Feb-21 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/30/30
Minor Storm 05/10/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/20/30
Major-severe storm 30/15/40
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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