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CX2SA > SWPC 21.02.13 00:20l 64 Lines 2389 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 3615-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IZ3LSV<IW0QNL<IK6ZDE<VE3UIL<XE1FH<CX2SA
Sent: 130220/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SA #:3615 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:3615-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SA
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2013 Feb 20 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 51 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Feb 2013
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to
20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at
20/1111Z from Region 1678 (N11W54). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (21 Feb, 22 Feb, 23 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 426 km/s at
20/2043Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 20/0203Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -8 nT at approximately 20/0836Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (21 Feb, 23
Feb) and quiet levels on day two (22 Feb). Protons have a slight chance
of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (21 Feb, 22 Feb, 23
Feb).
III. Event probabilities 21 Feb-23 Feb
Class M 45/45/45
Class X 15/15/15
Proton 15/15/15
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Feb 114
Predicted 21 Feb-23 Feb 115/115/110
90 Day Mean 20 Feb 115
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Feb 005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Feb 006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Feb-23 Feb 008/008-007/008-009/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Feb-23 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/15/20
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/20
Minor Storm 25/25/30
Major-severe storm 25/25/25
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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