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CX2SA > SWPC 23.08.12 00:19l 62 Lines 2558 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 122_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IZ3LSV<IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 120822/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SA #:122 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:122_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SA
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Aug 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 235 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Aug 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z
to 22/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 1548 (N18E18)
produced the largest event of the period, a B6/Sf flare at 22/1658Z.
The remaining numbered regions were stable and quiet. A full halo
CME was observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery beginning at
21/2024Z with an estimated plane-of-sky speed of 884 km/s. STEREO-A
and STEREO-B COR2 imagery shows this CME to be a back-sided event
and is not expected to be geoeffective. SDO/AIA 193 imagery showed a
filament eruption in the vicinity of plage Region 1549 (S18W72) at
approximately 22/0930Z. A CME was subsequently observed in LASCO/C2
coronagraph imagery at 22/1012Z, and in LASCO C3 imagery at
22/1118Z. Analysis is underway to determine the potential
geoeffectiveness of this event.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a slight chance for C-class flares for the next three days
(23-25 August).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the
period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominately quiet for days 1-3 (23-25 August).
III. Event Probabilities 23 Aug-25 Aug
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Aug 095
Predicted 23 Aug-25 Aug 095/100/100
90 Day Mean 22 Aug 124
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Aug 007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Aug 005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Aug-25 Aug 006/005-006/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Aug-25 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 05/05/05
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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