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W1GMF > WX 06.03.08 00:00l 60 Lines 3074 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 24190_W1GMF
Read: GUEST
Subj: MT WASHINGTON 0305
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Sent: 080305/1136Z @:W1GMF.#EMA.MA.USA.NOAM #:24190 [ABINGTON, MA] FBB7.00e
From: W1GMF@W1GMF.#EMA.MA.USA.NOAM
To : WX@NEBBS
MT WASHINGTON WEATHER CONDITIONS
Wednesday, March 5, 2008
5:15 AM
Winter Storm Warning in effect until 7 pm this afternoon...
Conditions at 5:15 AM
Weather: Fog, sleet
Temperature: 13°F
Wind: SE 45 mph
Visibility: 1/16 of a mile
Relative Humidity: 100%
Station Pressue: 23.57" falling
Ground Conditions: 9" ice/wind packed snow/sleet w/ deep drifts
24 Hour Statistics
Maximum Temperature: 35°F
Minimum Temperature: 12°F
Peak Wind Gust: W 108 mph
Average Wind Speed: 57.1 mph
Liquid Precipitation: 0.32"
Snowfall: 0.9"
Almanac Data
Record High: 45°F (1976)
Record Low: -23°F (1978)
Average Daily Temperature: 11°F
Average Monthly Melted Precipitation: 9.42
Average Monthly Snowfall: 54.10
Total Snowfall So Far This Month: 14.4
Average Monthly Winds: 40.4
Sunrise: 06:10
Sunset: 5:44
Forecast Discussion
A complex of low pressure systems will be making their way northeast today then exit overnight into the Canadian Maritimes as high pressure builds for Thursday. A warm front this morning will warm temperatures allowing for precipitation to start as sleet and snow transitioning into freezing rain and possible rain as temperatures approach freezing. As the lows pass, a pair of cold fronts will sweep through lowering temperatures once again and transitioning precipitation back to frozen form. As the fronts pass, precipitation will fall heavily at times. Overnight, showers taper and drier air works in as high pressure builds. This will allow for a clearing trend towards morning continuing through tomorrow. Clouds will be on their way back in later tomorrow though in anticipation of the next system. Winds through the forecast period will rise ahead of the low, dipping as the center passes, rising overnight as it exits and dipping once again tomorrow as the high crests in. The main forecast problem was temperatures this morning. None of the models are even close to a correct initialization this morning with some 20-30 degrees higher that what is actually occurring. So I took some assumptions that temperatures would be trending towards the freezing mark. But another thing to note is how poorly the models have done the past two days. Summits have unexpectedly cleared and warmed much differently than models were suggesting. But given todays set up, temperatures should warm with the rest of the forecast elements holding true. Will also mention the slight possibility of a rumble of thunder. The only reason this is being mentioned is due to all the activity currently taking place in the mid-Atlantic. But things should become more stable as it moves northeast and this is reflected in the model sounding for Berlin, NH. Also, like yesterday, I have kept NWS warning criteria since no other independent advisories for wind chills are trumping this for the higher terrain. Wind chills over the forecast period will be 5-15 below this morning rising to 0-10 above before falling back to 20-30 below overnight before rebounding to 0-10 below tomorrow.
Ryan Knapp
Staff Meteorologist
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