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LU9DCE > ALERT 18.08.25 09:47l 170 Lines 5950 Bytes #274 (0) @ WW
BID : 9034_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 18-AUG
Path: IZ3LSV<DB0ERF<DK0WUE<PI8ZTM<VK2IO<VK2RZ<LU9DCE
Sent: 250818/0730Z 9034@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
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PACKET RADIO STATION - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
JAVA SCHEDULED NEWSLETTERS (JSN)
COPYRIGHT 2025 - EDUARDO A. CASTILLO
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 598
WW 598 SEVERE TSTM NE SD 180340Z - 180900Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 598
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1040 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2025
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA
* EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FROM 1040 PM
UNTIL 400 AM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SUMMARY...A LINEAR THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER WILL LIKELY MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE WATCH TONIGHT. THE MAIN THREATS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS WILL
BE A RISK FOR SCATTERED SEVERE GUSTS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THREAT
FOR LARGE HAIL WITH THE MORE INTENSE CORES.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES NORTHEAST OF
MITCHELL SD TO 45 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF ONEILL NE. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES.
&&
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO
1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A
FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR
27025.
...SMITH
READ MORE
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 598 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0598 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS FOR WATCH 0598 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
READ MORE
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SPC - NO MDS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF MON AUG 18 03:45:22 UTC 2025
NO MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF MON AUG 18 03:45:22 UTC
2025.
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SPC AUG 18, 2025 0100 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0100Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0800 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2025
VALID 180100Z - 181200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST...
...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS MAY
POSE A THREAT FOR DAMAGING GUSTS AND HAIL TONIGHT, WHILE A BRIEF
TORNADO REMAINS POSSIBLE OVER THE MIDWEST THIS EVENING.
...CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...
WEAK ASCENT FROM A BROAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH, VISIBLE IN EVENING
WATER-VAPOR IMAGERY, IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NE AND SD THIS EVENING. SOME
CLUSTERING OF INITIAL CELLS HAS BEEN NOTED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS THIS
EVENING. SLIGHT ENHANCEMENT OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ATTENDANT TO
THE BROAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH SUGGESTS SOME UPSCALE GROWTH IS POSSIBLE
OVER SOUTHERN SD AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL NE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
AIDED BY AND INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET, SEVERE GUSTS
ARE POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF NE AND SOUTHERN SD WITH A LOOSELY
ORGANIZED CLUSTER/MCS PROGRESSING EAST/SOUTHESTWARD.
FARTHER NORTH ALONG THE FRONT IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS, SCATTERED
STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY AS LOW-LEVEL MASS
RESPONSE INCREASES AT THE NOSE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET. LIKELY
ELEVATED, SPORADIC HAIL AND OR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONGER CLUSTERS. CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS
LOW OWING THE WEAK BUT PERSISTENT SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE MCV
FARTHER EAST.
...IA/MN...
AHEAD OF A DIFFUSE MCV, SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG
AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED FRONTAL ZONE. ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS FRONT,
VERY MOIST SURFACE CONDITIONS ARE SUPPORTING LARGE BUOYANCY. AREA
VADS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MODEST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT,
PRIMARILY ALONG THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. STILL, SLIGHT
ENHANCEMENT OF LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES AND VERTICAL VORTICITY ALONG
THE WIND SHIFT COULD SUPPORT A BRIEF SUPERCELL/TORNADO THREAT WITH
OCCASIONAL STRONGER UPDRAFTS INTO THIS EVENING. WITH TIME, THE
THREAT SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
BEGINS TO COOL AND THE MCV CONTINUES EASTWARD.
...NORTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
SCATTERED HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING THIS EVENING SHOULD
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS ASCENT ATTENDANT THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
THE NORTHWEST SPREADS EASTWARD. MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT,
AND WEAK BUOYANCY ATOP STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN
SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS WITH THE STRONGER DOWNDRAFTS.
THE SEVERE RISK SHOULD STEADILY PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO SOUTHEASTERN
MT AND THE FAR WESTERN DAKOTAS BEFORE WEAKENING AFTER SUNSET
TONIGHT.
...MID ATLANTIC...
LINGERING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY POSE A RISK FOR A DAMAGING
WIND GUST OR TWO FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS THIS EVENING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE DELMARVA. WHILE GENERAL CONVECTIVE TRENDS CONTINUE
TO SUGGEST A DECREASING THREAT WITH NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION
UNDERWAY, A STRAY GUST OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT BEFORE STORMS OFF
SHORE TONIGHT.
..LYONS.. 08/18/2025
READ MORE
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